Tensions remain dangerously high between Armenia and Azerbaijan – and beyond. In recent weeks, Baku has reportedly massed troops along the border with Armenia and around Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian leaders are sounding the alarm in foreign capitals and urging immediate talks. Meanwhile, Moscow is growing increasingly unhappy with Armenia, its only treaty ally in the South Caucasus, due to Yerevan’s growing ties with Western states, illustrated by ongoing joint military drills with the U.S.
All this contributes to fears of renewed fighting. In the almost three years since the last war between the two sides ended in a ceasefire, separate tracks for peace talks, mediated by the European Union, the U.S. and Russia, have failed to produce a peace treaty. Yerevan has pressed for some sort of security guarantees for ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh before Baku retakes control of the enclave. Baku has refused, saying they will have all the guarantees accorded to all Azerbaijani citizens. The de facto leaders of that population have sought direct talks with Baku, but these, although promised, remain elusive.
In this online event Crisis Group experts discuss the latest developments on the ground and prospects for de-escalating tensions and a peace agreement. They will also discuss the roles of external powers, and whether they will be able to help move negotiations forward.
Moderator: Olga Oliker, Crisis Group Program Director, Europe & Central Asia
Olesya Vartanyan, Senior South Caucasus Analyst
Zaur Shiriyev, South Caucasus Analyst
Oleg Ignatov, Senior Russia Analyst