While we are still a few days out and some uncertainty remains, a clearer picture is taking shape of Hurricane Lee’s impacts in the Maritimes this weekend.
The large and slow-moving storm is still expected to remain near Category 1 strength as it moves into the region on Saturday. Lee will then transition to a post-tropical low as it crawls northeast on Saturday night into Sunday.
The projected track has shifted over the past few days. However, the latest forecast model runs have narrowed in on the potential for the storm to move into the Gulf of Maine before making landfall somewhere in the southwestern Maritimes.
Lee is already a large storm, however that post-tropical transition means that gusty winds will spread across a large area far from the centre of the storm. Wind gusts in the 60 to 90 km/h range are below warning criteria but will bring the risk of widespread power outages with the trees still in full foliage.
The heaviest rain is most likely to fall near the centre of the track and to the northwest. It’s still a bit early for forecasting potential totals, but these areas could get more than 50 mm of rainfall on Saturday and Saturday night. Further east, overall totals won’t be as high, but heavy downpours are still likely.
While pounding surf is a slam dunk with this storm, the potential for storm surge is more uncertain. A few hours can make a big difference and we’re expecting a better picture of the storm surge risk and how it might line up with high tide over the next couple of days. Be sure to stay tuned for updates.
Tropical downpours on Thursday
Not to be overlooked, tropical moisture is moving into the region ahead of Hurricane Lee and will arrive on Thursday.
Expect scattered showers with heavy downpours and the risk of thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday night with the risk of some localized flash flooding.